WASDE: what changed
USDA's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the biggest scheduled report for grain prices, in plain English. U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat, this month vs. last month.
October 2026 report · released Friday, Oct 9
Corn
- USDA raised the 2026/27 yield to 181.2 bu/acre (from 178.5), putting production at 16.034 billion bushels.
- USDA raised exports by 25 million bushels, to 3.300 billion bushels.
- USDA raised corn used for ethanol by 50 million bushels, to 5.650 billion bushels.
- USDA raised feed use by 50 million bushels, to 6.000 billion bushels.
- Ending stocks rose 282 million to 1.849 billion bushels: a bigger cushion, which usually weighs on prices.
- USDA's season-average farm price is now $4.70 (was $4.80).
| Million bu. | Sep | Oct | Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acres planted (mil.) | 96.8 | 96.8 | unch |
| Yield (bu/acre) | 178.5 | 181.2 | +2.7 |
| Production | 15,800 | 16,034 | +234 |
| Feed & residual | 5,950 | 6,000 | +50 |
| Ethanol use | 5,600 | 5,650 | +50 |
| Exports | 3,275 | 3,300 | +25 |
| Ending stocks | 1,567 | 1,849 | +282 |
| Stocks-to-use | 9.7% | 11.3% | +1.6 |
| Avg. farm price ($/bu) | $4.80 | $4.70 | -0.10 |
Soybeans
- USDA raised the 2026/27 yield to 53.1 bu/acre (from 52.8), putting production at 4.562 billion bushels.
- USDA raised exports by 10 million bushels, to 1.695 billion bushels.
- Ending stocks rose 5 million to 315 million bushels: a bigger cushion, which usually weighs on prices.
| Million bu. | Sep | Oct | Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acres planted (mil.) | 86.9 | 86.9 | unch |
| Yield (bu/acre) | 52.8 | 53.1 | +0.3 |
| Production | 4,535 | 4,562 | +27 |
| Crush | 2,780 | 2,780 | unch |
| Exports | 1,685 | 1,695 | +10 |
| Ending stocks | 310 | 315 | +5 |
| Stocks-to-use | 6.8% | 6.9% | +0.1 |
| Avg. farm price ($/bu) | $12.00 | $12.00 | unch |
Wheat
- USDA raised the 2026/27 yield to 48.1 bu/acre (from 47.8), putting production at 1.534 billion bushels.
- USDA lowered planted acres to 42.5 million (from 42.7).
- USDA lowered exports by 25 million bushels, to 750 million bushels.
- USDA raised feed use by 10 million bushels, to 90 million bushels.
- Ending stocks rose 23 million to 740 million bushels: a bigger cushion, which usually weighs on prices.
- USDA's season-average farm price is now $6.30 (was $6.40).
| Million bu. | Sep | Oct | Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acres harvested (mil.) | 32.1 | 31.9 | -0.2 |
| Yield (bu/acre) | 47.8 | 48.1 | +0.3 |
| Production | 1,531 | 1,534 | +3 |
| Food use | 960 | 960 | unch |
| Feed & residual | 80 | 90 | +10 |
| Exports | 775 | 750 | -25 |
| Ending stocks | 717 | 740 | +23 |
| Stocks-to-use | 38.3% | 39.8% | +1.5 |
| Avg. farm price ($/bu) | $6.40 | $6.30 | -0.10 |
Source: USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board, full WASDE report (PDF). Figures in millions of bushels except acres (millions), yield and price. Summaries are ours; they describe USDA's numbers, not a price forecast.
September 2026 report
Corn: USDA cut the 2026/27 yield to 178.5 bu/acre (from 180.7), putting production at 15.800 billion bushels. USDA lowered feed use by 150 million bushels, to 5.950 billion bushels. Ending stocks fell 86 million to 1.567 billion bushels: a tighter supply, which usually supports prices. USDA's season-average farm price is now $4.80 (was $4.50).
Soybeans: USDA raised the 2026/27 yield to 52.8 bu/acre (from 52.7), putting production at 4.535 billion bushels. USDA raised planted acres to 86.9 million (from 86.8). USDA raised exports by 25 million bushels, to 1.685 billion bushels. Ending stocks fell 10 million to 310 million bushels: a tighter supply, which usually supports prices. USDA's season-average farm price is now $12.00 (was $11.40).
Wheat: Ending stocks unchanged at 717 million bushels. USDA's season-average farm price is now $6.40 (was $6.20).
What's left in the bin at the end of the marketing year. Smaller stocks mean a tighter supply and usually firmer prices; bigger stocks usually weigh on prices.
Ending stocks as a share of a year's use. It compares tightness across years better than bushels alone. Under about 10% is tight for corn; under about 7% is tight for soybeans.
Futures already price in what traders expect. The move on report day comes from the surprise: how far USDA's yield or stocks land from the trade's guesses.
1-year charts with every WASDE marked · Report calendar · Corn futures