Markets / KC Wheat (HRW)
KC Wheat (HRW)
Dec KC Wheat futures · $ per bushel
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KC Wheat is up 37.6% since January 1. By this point in a typical year (2021–2025) it was down 0.8%. From here to year-end, the price rose in 2 of the last 5 years, down 0.9% on average. Front-month futures. Past patterns don't predict prices; weather, demand and policy change every year.
As of Tuesday, Oct 6, hedge funds and commodity advisors are net long 23,253 contracts (less bullish than the week before, -7,424). That's more bullish than 88% of weeks in the last 3 years. CFTC Commitments of Traders, Disaggregated Futures Only. Published Fridays with Tuesday's positions.
Every contract month
KC Wheat futures trade Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec only; there are no other months.
Deferred months are priced above Dec KC Wheat (a carry): the market is paying to store it.
| Month | Last | Change | vs. Dec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec KC Wheat | 7.16 | +3.5¢ | — |
| Mar KC Wheat | 7.28 | +2.5¢ | +11.75¢ |
| May KC Wheat | 7.32 | +1¢ | +16¢ |
| Jul KC Wheat | 7.32 | +0.5¢ | +16.5¢ |
| Sep KC Wheat | 7.38 | unch | +22.25¢ |
| Dec 27 KC Wheat | 7.48 | unch | +32¢ |
| Mar 28 KC Wheat | 7.56 | unch | +40¢ |
| Jul 28 KC Wheat | 7.24 | +3.75¢ | +8.25¢ |
| Sep 28 KC Wheat | 7.80 | +69.75¢ | +64.25¢ |
Text me when Dec KC Wheat hits my number
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Set up Dec KC Wheat alertsCrop progress
Winter wheat: 27% emerged (+11 pts in a week, 5 pts behind the 5-year average (32%)).
Drought
55% of the lower 48 is in drought, down from 59% last week and 45% a year ago. Corn Belt in drought: IA 0%, IL 10%, NE 44%, MN 63%, IN 0%. Most in drought among farm states: OK 97%, TX 82%, MN 63%.
Grain shipping
St. Louis barge rate 723% of tariff (about $28.86/ton), down 5% from last week, up 53% from a year ago, up 14% from the 3-yr average (week of Oct 6). Barges moved 332k tons of grain down river (week ending Oct 3), down 16% from the week before, up 9% from a year ago, down 6% from the 3-yr average. Mississippi at Memphis +6.1 ft (+3.8 ft in a week), forecast +2.2 ft by Oct 28.
Economy
Fed funds target 3.75-4.00% (raised 25 basis points Sep 17, 2026). Dollar index 102.90, +0.6% this week, +3.9% from a year ago. A stronger dollar makes US grain and meat pricier overseas. Coming up: Consumer prices (CPI) Wed Oct 14 7:30am CT; Producer prices (PPI) Thu Oct 15 7:30am CT.
Why it moved
The next 10:00 or 2:00 report will explain today's move here.
About this market
KC hard red winter wheat (the Plains bread wheat), 5,000 bushels. Jul is new crop. The KC-Chicago spread shows how tight protein wheat is.