Markets / Wheat
Wheat
Dec Wheat futures · $ per bushel
Wheat is up 32.3% since January 1. By this point in a typical year (2021–2025) it was down 2.8%. From here to year-end, the price rose in 3 of the last 5 years, down 0.2% on average. Front-month futures. Past patterns don't predict prices; weather, demand and policy change every year.
As of Tuesday, Oct 6, hedge funds and commodity advisors are net short 28,830 contracts (less bullish than the week before, -6,721). That's more bullish than 83% of weeks in the last 3 years. CFTC Commitments of Traders, Disaggregated Futures Only. Published Fridays with Tuesday's positions.
Every contract month
Wheat futures trade Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec only; there are no other months.
Deferred months are priced above Dec Wheat (a carry): the market is paying to store it.
| Month | Last | Change | vs. Dec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec Wheat | 6.73 | +1.75¢ | — |
| Mar Wheat | 6.86 | +1¢ | +13.5¢ |
| May Wheat | 6.92 | +0.25¢ | +19.5¢ |
| Jul Wheat | 6.95 | unch | +22.25¢ |
| Sep Wheat | 7.01 | unch | +28.75¢ |
| Dec 27 Wheat | 7.12 | unch | +39.75¢ |
| Mar 28 Wheat | 7.20 | -0.25¢ | +47.25¢ |
| May 28 Wheat | 7.19 | -0.25¢ | +46.5¢ |
| Jul 28 Wheat | 7.02 | unch | +29.25¢ |
| Sep 28 Wheat | 7.18 | +9.5¢ | +45.5¢ |
| Dec 28 Wheat | 7.30 | +9.75¢ | +57¢ |
| Mar 29 Wheat | 7.70 | +45¢ | +97.25¢ |
Text me when Dec Wheat hits my number
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Set up Dec Wheat alertsCrop progress
Winter wheat: 16% emerged (+8 pts in a week, 4 pts behind the 5-year average (20%)).
Export shipments
Shipped 11.1 million bushels (0.30 million metric tons) in the week ending Oct 1, down 10% from the week before. Marketing year to date: 245 million bushels, 35% behind last year's pace. That's 33% of USDA's 750 million bushel export forecast; hitting it takes about 14.4 million bushels a week from here (this week: 11.1).
USDA WASDE
Ending stocks rose 23 million to 740 million bushels: a bigger cushion, which usually weighs on prices. USDA raised the 2026/27 yield to 48.1 bu/acre (from 47.8), putting production at 1.534 billion bushels.
Why it moved
No single news story drove wheat higher today. Corn (+0.78%) was higher too, so the buying was across the grain market.
Reports coming up
- Tue Oct 13USDA export inspections10:00am CT
- Tue Oct 13USDA Crop Progress3:00pm CT
- Thu Oct 15USDA weekly Export Sales7:30am CT
- Mon Oct 19USDA export inspections10:00am CT
- Mon Oct 19USDA Crop Progress3:00pm CT
- Thu Oct 22USDA weekly Export Sales7:30am CT
- Mon Oct 26USDA export inspections10:00am CT
- Mon Oct 26USDA Crop Progress3:00pm CT
- Thu Oct 29USDA weekly Export Sales7:30am CT
About this market
CBOT soft red winter wheat, 5,000 bushels. Jul is new crop for winter wheat.