Markets / Spring Wheat
Spring Wheat
Dec Spr Wheat futures · $ per bushel
Daily settlements from USDA Market News grain reports (history starts when we began saving them). Exchange prices are paused while we set up a licensed feed; live indicative prices are on during the day.
As of Tuesday, Oct 27, hedge funds and commodity advisors are net short 3,713 contracts (less bullish than the week before, -7,906). That's more bullish than 73% of weeks in the last 3 years. CFTC Commitments of Traders, Disaggregated Futures Only. Published Fridays with Tuesday's positions.
Every contract month
Spring Wheat futures trade Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec only; there are no other months.
Deferred months are priced above Dec Spr Wheat (a carry): the market is paying to store it.
| Month | Settle | Change | vs. Dec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec Spr Wheat | 6.19½ | -6¼¢ | — |
| Mar Spr Wheat | 6.35½ | -7¼¢ | +16¢ |
| May Spr Wheat | 6.47 | -7¾¢ | +27½¢ |
| Jul Spr Wheat | 6.57¼ | -8¼¢ | +37¾¢ |
| Sep Spr Wheat | 6.66¼ | -7¾¢ | +46¾¢ |
| Dec 27 Spr Wheat | 6.82¾ | -6½¢ | +63¼¢ |
Drought
49% of the lower 48 is in drought, down from 51% last week and 44% a year ago. Corn Belt in drought: IA 0%, IL 29%, NE 35%, MN 63%, IN 16%. Most in drought among farm states: OK 87%, TX 68%, MN 63%.
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World supply
World wheat crop 2026/27: 822.4 MMT, down 21.7 from last year; ending stocks 276.0 MMT. Top exporters: Russia 40.0 MMT (down 8.0 vs last year), European Union 31.0 MMT (down 0.7 vs last year), Canada 30.5 MMT (up 0.7 vs last year).
Farm aid
Harvest Fuel Relief (HFR), $8 billion: Announced Oct 19, 2026. Payment rates for corn, soybeans, wheat and other program crops are due in November; sign-up dates aren't set yet. ARC and PLC payments (2025 crop), about $13.8 billion: Going out in October 2026 for farms enrolled for the 2025 crop. Make sure your 2026 acres are reported to your FSA office, and set up a Login.gov account linked to USDA now. Producers with a linked account get a pre-filled online application.
Farmland values
United States: cropland $6,020 an acre in 2026 (+3.3% from last year), pasture $2,000.
North Dakota: cropland $2,800 an acre in 2026 (+3.3% from last year), pasture $1,200.
Minnesota: cropland $7,300 an acre in 2026 (+4.3% from last year), pasture $2,400.
Montana: cropland $1,350 an acre in 2026 (+2.3% from last year), pasture $940.
South Dakota: cropland $4,770 an acre in 2026 (+3.5% from last year), pasture $1,400.
Export sales
Week ending Oct 22: net sales 871,770 tons (32.0 million bu), up from 239,627 tons (8.8 million bu) the week before; 265,992 tons (9.8 million bu) shipped. Sold so far for 2026/27: 11.52 million tons (423.2 million bu) (-29% vs this point last year, -12% vs the 5-year average). That's 56% of USDA's export forecast, 21 weeks into the marketing year.
Input costs
Anhydrous ammonia: $902/ton, down $3 from the last report, 16% above a year ago. Potash (0-0-60): $500/ton, up $6 from the last report, 2% above a year ago. Farm diesel: $5.65/gal, up 16¢ from the last report, 99% above a year ago. A ton of anhydrous costs 204 bushels of corn at today's price.
Grain shipping
St. Louis barge rate 564% of tariff (about $22.51/ton), down 5% from last week, up 14% from a year ago, down 10% from the 3-yr average (week of Oct 27). Barges moved 536k tons of grain down river (week ending Oct 24), up 3% from the week before, down 25% from a year ago, down 29% from the 3-yr average. Mississippi at Memphis -4.6 ft (-2.8 ft in a week), forecast -0.2 ft by Nov 17. Low water: barges load lighter and rates jump when Memphis is near or below zero.
Economy
Fed funds target 3.75-4.00%: held at the Oct 28 meeting (last change: raised 25 basis points Sep 17, 2026). Coming up: Jobs report Fri Nov 6 7:30am CT; Consumer prices (CPI) Tue Nov 10 7:30am CT.
Why it moved
The next 10:00 or 2:00 report will explain today's move here.
About this market
Minneapolis hard red spring wheat (the Northern Plains high-protein bread wheat), 5,000 bushels. Sep is new crop. The Minneapolis-KC spread shows what millers pay for extra protein.